China"sGDPgrowthreboundedtoastronger-than-expected4.5percentyear-on-yeartargetinthefirstquarterofthisyearafterreaching2.9percentinthelastquarterof2022,pointingtoasteadyreboundamidthegradualnormalizationofproduction,datafromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsshowedonTuesday.
GivenChina"sstrongrecoverymomentumandlowcomparisonbaseinthepreviousyear,officialsandeconomistsestimatedthatChina"sgrowthcouldpickupnotablyinthesecondquarter,andthecountryiswellontracktoachievingitsGDPgrowthtargetofaround5percentin2023.
Meanwhile,theywarnedthatthefoundationsofrecoveryarenotsolidenough,sayingthattheeconomycouldbedraggeddownbypressuresfromacloudyglobaloutlook,thefadingofconsumptionmomentumandchallengesanduncertaintiesrelatedtoChina"sexportsandthepropertysector.Moreeffortsshouldbemadetofurtherspurdomesticdemandandstabilizemarketexpectations.
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NBSspokesmanFuLinghuisaidChina"seconomyisstabilizingandpickingupinthefirstquarterwiththerecoveryofkeyindicators,layingasolidfoundationforachievingthecountry"sannualgrowthtarget.
FutoldanewsconferenceinBeijingonTuesdaythatChina"sgrowthwouldpickupnotablyinthesecondquartergiventhelowcomparisonbaseamidtheCOVID-19pandemicinthepastyear,whilegrowthmayslowdowninthethirdandfourthquartersduetoariseinthecomparisonbaseslastyear.
Onthebackofthestronger-than-expectedfirstquarterGDPreport,ZhuHaibin,JPMorgan"schiefChinaeconomist,saidhisteamraiseditsfull-yearGDPgrowthforecastforChinafrom6percentyear-on-yearto6.4percentyear-on-year.
Chinaiswellontracktoachievingthegovernment"sGDPgrowthtargetof"around5percent"forthisyear,saidLuTing,chiefChinaeconomistatNomura.
"WemaintainourGDPgrowthforecastsof7.6percentyear-on-yearforthesecondquarterand5.3percentfor2023,"hesaid.
Despitetheimprovementsinthefirstquarter,LusaidhisteamstillconsidersitmorelikelythatthePeople"sBankofChina,thenation"scentralbank,willslightlylowertheinterestrateofthemedium-termlendingfacilityoperation—akeypolicybenchmark—inthenextcoupleofmonths.
IrisPang,chiefChinaeconomistatDutchbankING,saidthereisnoimmediateneedforthegovernmenttoputmassivestimulusintotheeconomy,butitwillprobablykeepitsplanforinfrastructureinvestmentasasupplementarygrowthengineasherteamexpectstheexternalmarkettodeterioratefurtherthisyear.
Citingthefirstquarterfigures,LouiseLoo,ChinaleadeconomistatBritishthinktankOxfordEconomics,saidthecombinationofasteadyuptickinconsumerconfidenceaswellasthestill-incompletereleaseofpent-updemandsuggeststhattheconsumer-ledrecoverystillhasroomtorun.
NBSdatashowedthatChina"sretailsalesroseby5.8percentinthefirstthreemonths,comparedtothe2.7percentdeclineinthefourthquarteroflastyear.
Thecountry"svalue-addedindustrialoutputgrewby3percentyear-on-yearinthefirstquarter,whilefixed-assetinvestmentroseby5.1percentyear-on-yearinthefirstquarter,accordingtotheNBS.
Giventhelowbaseeffectinthepreviousyear,LoosaidherteamexpectsChina"sGDPtoaccelerateonayear-on-yearbasis,whilefadingconsumptionmomentum,thewindingdownoffiscalstimulusandweakerexternaldemandwouldputdownwardpressureondomesticgrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear.
Loo"sviewswereechoedbyBenSimpfendorfer,apartneratconsultancyOliverWyman,whoestimatedthatChina"srecoverywouldstrengthenoverthecomingquarters.
Lookingahead,hesaidthefocusshouldbelessonthegrowthrateandmoreontheopportunitytoreformandrebalancetheeconomy,toraisetheshareofconsumptionversusinvestmentandtofocusonupgradingmanufacturingandencouraginginnovation.
"Chinaremainstheworld"ssecond-largesteconomy.Andclearly,it"sgrowingatafasterratethanmanyotherlargeeconomiesthisyear,soitscontribution(toglobaleconomicgrowth)willbeimportant,"headded.
ErikBerglof,chiefeconomistoftheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,saidthatChinaisexpectedtoseereasonablegrowthofaround5percentthisyear,contributingtoaroundone-thirdofglobaleconomicgrowth.
SamsonKhaou,executivevice-presidentofDassaultSystemesAsia-Pacific,saidtheFrenchindustrialsoftwarecompanyishighlyconfidentaboutChina"seconomicgrowththisyear,andthecompanywillcontinuetoinvestmoreintheChinamarket.
KhaousaidhebelievesthatChina"sgrowthwillbesourcedbybothdomesticandglobaldemand,andthemanufacturingsectorwillbeoneofthekeygrowthfactorsforChina.
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